Mapping and Modelling the Geographical Distribution and Environmental Limits of Podoconiosis in Ethiopia
Publication Date
July 29, 2015
Journal
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases
Authors
Kebede Deribe, Jorge Cano, Melanie J. Newport, Nick Golding, et al
Volume
9
Issue
7
Pages
e0003946
DOI
https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003946
Publisher URL
http://journals.plos.org/plosntds/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pntd.0003946
PubMed
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26222887
PubMed Central
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4519246
Europe PMC
http://europepmc.org/abstract/MED/26222887
Web of Science
000359079700048
Scopus
84938565836
Mendeley
http://www.mendeley.com/research/mapping-modelling-geographical-distribution-environmental-limits-podoconiosis-ethiopia
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Mendeley | Further Information

{"title"=>"Mapping and modelling the geographical distribution and environmental limits of podoconiosis in Ethiopia", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Kebede", "last_name"=>"Deribe", "scopus_author_id"=>"57193912587"}, {"first_name"=>"Jorge", "last_name"=>"Cano", "scopus_author_id"=>"7201865982"}, {"first_name"=>"Melanie J.", "last_name"=>"Newport", "scopus_author_id"=>"7005355649"}, {"first_name"=>"Nick", "last_name"=>"Golding", "scopus_author_id"=>"36942802800"}, {"first_name"=>"Rachel L.", "last_name"=>"Pullan", "scopus_author_id"=>"57190211779"}, {"first_name"=>"Heven", "last_name"=>"Sime", "scopus_author_id"=>"54421279300"}, {"first_name"=>"Abeba", "last_name"=>"Gebretsadik", "scopus_author_id"=>"56350052000"}, {"first_name"=>"Ashenafi", "last_name"=>"Assefa", "scopus_author_id"=>"56483093000"}, {"first_name"=>"Amha", "last_name"=>"Kebede", "scopus_author_id"=>"6701812345"}, {"first_name"=>"Asrat", "last_name"=>"Hailu", "scopus_author_id"=>"7003570205"}, {"first_name"=>"Maria P.", "last_name"=>"Rebollo", "scopus_author_id"=>"55773365300"}, {"first_name"=>"Oumer", "last_name"=>"Shafi", "scopus_author_id"=>"56349907100"}, {"first_name"=>"Moses J.", "last_name"=>"Bockarie", "scopus_author_id"=>"7004523740"}, {"first_name"=>"Abraham", "last_name"=>"Aseffa", "scopus_author_id"=>"6701369983"}, {"first_name"=>"Simon I.", "last_name"=>"Hay", "scopus_author_id"=>"7101875313"}, {"first_name"=>"Richard", "last_name"=>"Reithinger", "scopus_author_id"=>"55933084500"}, {"first_name"=>"Fikre", "last_name"=>"Enquselassie", "scopus_author_id"=>"6602722757"}, {"first_name"=>"Gail", "last_name"=>"Davey", "scopus_author_id"=>"7102000901"}, {"first_name"=>"Simon J.", "last_name"=>"Brooker", "scopus_author_id"=>"7005926568"}], "year"=>2015, "source"=>"PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases", "identifiers"=>{"pui"=>"605468735", "isbn"=>"1935-2727", "issn"=>"19352735", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pntd.0003946", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84938565836", "pmid"=>"26222887", "sgr"=>"84938565836"}, "id"=>"7d35e902-fd5e-3aac-9561-13f8d3e642e5", "abstract"=>"BACKGROUND: Ethiopia is assumed to have the highest burden of podoconiosis globally, but the geographical distribution and environmental limits and correlates are yet to be fully investigated. In this paper we use data from a nationwide survey to address these issues. METHODOLOGY: Our analyses are based on data arising from the integrated mapping of podoconiosis and lymphatic filariasis (LF) conducted in 2013, supplemented by data from an earlier mapping of LF in western Ethiopia in 2008-2010. The integrated mapping used woreda (district) health offices' reports of podoconiosis and LF to guide selection of survey sites. A suite of environmental and climatic data and boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to investigate environmental limits and predict the probability of podoconiosis occurrence. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations of Ethiopia. In 41.9% of surveyed districts no cases of podoconiosis were identified, with all districts in Affar, Dire Dawa, Somali and Gambella regional states lacking the disease. The disease was most common, with lymphoedema positivity rate exceeding 5%, in the central highlands of Ethiopia, in Amhara, Oromia and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples regional states. BRT modelling indicated that the probability of podoconiosis occurrence increased with increasing altitude, precipitation and silt fraction of soil and decreased with population density and clay content. Based on the BRT model, we estimate that in 2010, 34.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 20.2-51.7) million people (i.e. 43.8%; 95% CI: 25.3-64.8% of Ethiopia's national population) lived in areas environmentally suitable for the occurrence of podoconiosis. CONCLUSIONS: Podoconiosis is more widespread in Ethiopia than previously estimated, but occurs in distinct geographical regions that are tied to identifiable environmental factors. The resultant maps can be used to guide programme planning and implementation and estimate disease burden in Ethiopia. This work provides a framework with which the geographical limits of podoconiosis could be delineated at a continental scale.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/mapping-modelling-geographical-distribution-environmental-limits-podoconiosis-ethiopia", "reader_count"=>32, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Researcher"=>8, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>9, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Other"=>1, "Student > Master"=>1, "Student > Bachelor"=>3, "Lecturer"=>3, "Professor"=>2}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Researcher"=>8, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>9, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Other"=>1, "Student > Master"=>1, "Student > Bachelor"=>3, "Lecturer"=>3, "Professor"=>2}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Engineering"=>1, "Unspecified"=>4, "Environmental Science"=>3, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>11, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>6, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>1, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>1, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>3, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>1}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>6}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>1}, "Immunology and Microbiology"=>{"Immunology and Microbiology"=>3}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>11}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>4}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>3}, "Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>{"Veterinary Science and Veterinary Medicine"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"United Kingdom"=>1, "Kenya"=>2}, "group_count"=>1}

Scopus | Further Information

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Figshare

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  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2193559"], "description"=>"<p>Classification of prevalence of podoconiosis among adults ≥15 years old in Ethiopia, by region.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Dire Dawa", "BRT modelling", "estimate disease burden", "BRT model", "Ethiopia BackgroundEthiopia", "population density", "podoconiosis occurrence", "mapping", "survey sites", "Regression Tree", "silt fraction", "Geographical Distribution", "guide programme planning", "ci", "issues.MethodologyOur analyses", "Southern Nations", "lymphoedema positivity rate", "775 districts", "lf", "Lymphatic filariasis", "city administrations", "guide selection", "clay content", "use data", "Environmental Limits", "podoconiosis occurrence.Principal FindingsData"], "article_id"=>1496925, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Kebede Deribe", "Jorge Cano", "Melanie J. Newport", "Nick Golding", "Rachel L. Pullan", "Heven Sime", "Abeba Gebretsadik", "Ashenafi Assefa", "Amha Kebede", "Asrat Hailu", "Maria P. Rebollo", "Oumer Shafi", "Moses J. Bockarie", "Abraham Aseffa", "Simon I. Hay", "Richard Reithinger", "Fikre Enquselassie", "Gail Davey", "Simon J. Brooker"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003946.t002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>18, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Classification_of_prevalence_of_podoconiosis_among_adults_8805_15_years_old_in_Ethiopia_by_region_/1496925", "title"=>"Classification of prevalence of podoconiosis among adults ≥15 years old in Ethiopia, by region.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2015-07-29 03:18:51"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2193558"], "description"=>"<p>CI = confidence interval.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Dire Dawa", "BRT modelling", "estimate disease burden", "BRT model", "Ethiopia BackgroundEthiopia", "population density", "podoconiosis occurrence", "mapping", "survey sites", "Regression Tree", "silt fraction", "Geographical Distribution", "guide programme planning", "ci", "issues.MethodologyOur analyses", "Southern Nations", "lymphoedema positivity rate", "775 districts", "lf", "Lymphatic filariasis", "city administrations", "guide selection", "clay content", "use data", "Environmental Limits", "podoconiosis occurrence.Principal FindingsData"], "article_id"=>1496924, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Kebede Deribe", "Jorge Cano", "Melanie J. Newport", "Nick Golding", "Rachel L. Pullan", "Heven Sime", "Abeba Gebretsadik", "Ashenafi Assefa", "Amha Kebede", "Asrat Hailu", "Maria P. Rebollo", "Oumer Shafi", "Moses J. Bockarie", "Abraham Aseffa", "Simon I. Hay", "Richard Reithinger", "Fikre Enquselassie", "Gail Davey", "Simon J. Brooker"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003946.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_The_prevalence_of_podoconiosis_among_adults_8805_15_years_old_in_Ethiopia_by_region_/1496924", "title"=>"The prevalence of podoconiosis among adults ≥15 years old in Ethiopia, by region.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2015-07-29 03:18:51"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2193555"], "description"=>"<p>Lines represent the mean estimate, while shaded areas depict associated 95% confidence interval.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Dire Dawa", "BRT modelling", "estimate disease burden", "BRT model", "Ethiopia BackgroundEthiopia", "population density", "podoconiosis occurrence", "mapping", "survey sites", "Regression Tree", "silt fraction", "Geographical Distribution", "guide programme planning", "ci", "issues.MethodologyOur analyses", "Southern Nations", "lymphoedema positivity rate", "775 districts", "lf", "Lymphatic filariasis", "city administrations", "guide selection", "clay content", "use data", "Environmental Limits", "podoconiosis occurrence.Principal FindingsData"], "article_id"=>1496921, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Kebede Deribe", "Jorge Cano", "Melanie J. Newport", "Nick Golding", "Rachel L. Pullan", "Heven Sime", "Abeba Gebretsadik", "Ashenafi Assefa", "Amha Kebede", "Asrat Hailu", "Maria P. Rebollo", "Oumer Shafi", "Moses J. Bockarie", "Abraham Aseffa", "Simon I. Hay", "Richard Reithinger", "Fikre Enquselassie", "Gail Davey", "Simon J. Brooker"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003946.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>5, "page_views"=>15, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Local_polynomial_smooth_line_fitted_to_the_prevalence_of_podoconiosis_showing_the_relationship_between_environmental_covariates_and_podoconiosis_prevalence_at_village_level_/1496921", "title"=>"Local polynomial smooth line fitted to the prevalence of podoconiosis showing the relationship between environmental covariates and podoconiosis prevalence at village level.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-07-29 03:18:51"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2193553"], "description"=>"<p>Map of Ethiopia with regional boundary (A); geographical distribution of podoconiosis in 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all regions of Ethiopia (B); district level distribution of podoconiosis in 775 districts of Ethiopia(C, D).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Dire Dawa", "BRT modelling", "estimate disease burden", "BRT model", "Ethiopia BackgroundEthiopia", "population density", "podoconiosis occurrence", "mapping", "survey sites", "Regression Tree", "silt fraction", "Geographical Distribution", "guide programme planning", "ci", "issues.MethodologyOur analyses", "Southern Nations", "lymphoedema positivity rate", "775 districts", "lf", "Lymphatic filariasis", "city administrations", "guide selection", "clay content", "use data", "Environmental Limits", "podoconiosis occurrence.Principal FindingsData"], "article_id"=>1496919, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Kebede Deribe", "Jorge Cano", "Melanie J. Newport", "Nick Golding", "Rachel L. Pullan", "Heven Sime", "Abeba Gebretsadik", "Ashenafi Assefa", "Amha Kebede", "Asrat Hailu", "Maria P. Rebollo", "Oumer Shafi", "Moses J. Bockarie", "Abraham Aseffa", "Simon I. Hay", "Richard Reithinger", "Fikre Enquselassie", "Gail Davey", "Simon J. Brooker"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003946.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>5, "page_views"=>72, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Map_of_Ethiopia_with_regional_boundary_A_geographical_distribution_of_podoconiosis_in_1_442_communities_in_775_districts_from_all_regions_of_Ethiopia_B_district_level_distribution_of_podoconiosis_in_775_districts_of_Ethiopia_C_D_/1496919", "title"=>"Map of Ethiopia with regional boundary (A); geographical distribution of podoconiosis in 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all regions of Ethiopia (B); district level distribution of podoconiosis in 775 districts of Ethiopia(C, D).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-07-29 03:18:51"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2193554"], "description"=>"<p>The grey envelopes are the 95% bootstrap confidence intervals and the black line indicates the mean marginal effect. The figure in the parentheses indicates the relative contribution of each variable, which adds up to 100. The y-axis is the untransformed logit response and x-axis is the full range of covariate values.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Dire Dawa", "BRT modelling", "estimate disease burden", "BRT model", "Ethiopia BackgroundEthiopia", "population density", "podoconiosis occurrence", "mapping", "survey sites", "Regression Tree", "silt fraction", "Geographical Distribution", "guide programme planning", "ci", "issues.MethodologyOur analyses", "Southern Nations", "lymphoedema positivity rate", "775 districts", "lf", "Lymphatic filariasis", "city administrations", "guide selection", "clay content", "use data", "Environmental Limits", "podoconiosis occurrence.Principal FindingsData"], "article_id"=>1496920, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Kebede Deribe", "Jorge Cano", "Melanie J. Newport", "Nick Golding", "Rachel L. Pullan", "Heven Sime", "Abeba Gebretsadik", "Ashenafi Assefa", "Amha Kebede", "Asrat Hailu", "Maria P. Rebollo", "Oumer Shafi", "Moses J. Bockarie", "Abraham Aseffa", "Simon I. Hay", "Richard Reithinger", "Fikre Enquselassie", "Gail Davey", "Simon J. Brooker"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003946.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>17, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Marginal_effect_curves_for_covariates_included_in_120_ensembles_of_boosted_regression_tree_BRT_models_/1496920", "title"=>"Marginal effect curves for covariates included in 120 ensembles of boosted regression tree (BRT) models.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2015-07-29 03:18:51"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/2193561"], "description"=>"<div><p>Background</p><p>Ethiopia is assumed to have the highest burden of podoconiosis globally, but the geographical distribution and environmental limits and correlates are yet to be fully investigated. In this paper we use data from a nationwide survey to address these issues.</p><p>Methodology</p><p>Our analyses are based on data arising from the integrated mapping of podoconiosis and lymphatic filariasis (LF) conducted in 2013, supplemented by data from an earlier mapping of LF in western Ethiopia in 2008–2010. The integrated mapping used <i>woreda</i> (district) health offices’ reports of podoconiosis and LF to guide selection of survey sites. A suite of environmental and climatic data and boosted regression tree (BRT) modelling was used to investigate environmental limits and predict the probability of podoconiosis occurrence.</p><p>Principal Findings</p><p>Data were available for 141,238 individuals from 1,442 communities in 775 districts from all nine regional states and two city administrations of Ethiopia. In 41.9% of surveyed districts no cases of podoconiosis were identified, with all districts in Affar, Dire Dawa, Somali and Gambella regional states lacking the disease. The disease was most common, with lymphoedema positivity rate exceeding 5%, in the central highlands of Ethiopia, in Amhara, Oromia and Southern Nations, Nationalities and Peoples regional states. BRT modelling indicated that the probability of podoconiosis occurrence increased with increasing altitude, precipitation and silt fraction of soil and decreased with population density and clay content. Based on the BRT model, we estimate that in 2010, 34.9 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 20.2–51.7) million people (i.e. 43.8%; 95% CI: 25.3–64.8% of Ethiopia’s national population) lived in areas environmentally suitable for the occurrence of podoconiosis.</p><p>Conclusions</p><p>Podoconiosis is more widespread in Ethiopia than previously estimated, but occurs in distinct geographical regions that are tied to identifiable environmental factors. The resultant maps can be used to guide programme planning and implementation and estimate disease burden in Ethiopia. This work provides a framework with which the geographical limits of podoconiosis could be delineated at a continental scale.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Dire Dawa", "BRT modelling", "estimate disease burden", "BRT model", "Ethiopia BackgroundEthiopia", "population density", "podoconiosis occurrence", "mapping", "survey sites", "Regression Tree", "silt fraction", "Geographical Distribution", "guide programme planning", "ci", "issues.MethodologyOur analyses", "Southern Nations", "lymphoedema positivity rate", "775 districts", "lf", "Lymphatic filariasis", "city administrations", "guide selection", "clay content", "use data", "Environmental Limits", "podoconiosis occurrence.Principal FindingsData"], "article_id"=>1496927, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Kebede Deribe", "Jorge Cano", "Melanie J. Newport", "Nick Golding", "Rachel L. Pullan", "Heven Sime", "Abeba Gebretsadik", "Ashenafi Assefa", "Amha Kebede", "Asrat Hailu", "Maria P. Rebollo", "Oumer Shafi", "Moses J. Bockarie", "Abraham Aseffa", "Simon I. Hay", "Richard Reithinger", "Fikre Enquselassie", "Gail Davey", "Simon J. Brooker"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003946", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>4, "page_views"=>23, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Mapping_and_Modelling_the_Geographical_Distribution_and_Environmental_Limits_of_Podoconiosis_in_Ethiopia_/1496927", "title"=>"Mapping and Modelling the Geographical Distribution and Environmental Limits of Podoconiosis in Ethiopia", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2015-07-29 03:18:51"}

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  • {"unique-ip"=>"74", "full-text"=>"95", "pdf"=>"3", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2019", "month"=>"4"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"68", "full-text"=>"77", "pdf"=>"6", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"1", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2019", "month"=>"5"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"59", "full-text"=>"71", "pdf"=>"3", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"1", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2019", "month"=>"8"}
  • {"unique-ip"=>"55", "full-text"=>"56", "pdf"=>"5", "scanned-summary"=>"0", "scanned-page-browse"=>"0", "figure"=>"0", "supp-data"=>"0", "cited-by"=>"0", "year"=>"2019", "month"=>"9"}

Relative Metric

{"start_date"=>"2015-01-01T00:00:00Z", "end_date"=>"2015-12-31T00:00:00Z", "subject_areas"=>[]}
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