The Roles of Dispersal, Fecundity, and Predation in the Population Persistence of an Oak (Quercus engelmannii) under Global Change
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{"title"=>"The roles of dispersal, fecundity, and predation in the population persistence of an oak (Quercus engelmannii) under global change", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Erin", "last_name"=>"Conlisk", "scopus_author_id"=>"8358289400"}, {"first_name"=>"Dawn", "last_name"=>"Lawson", "scopus_author_id"=>"8253359100"}, {"first_name"=>"Alexandra D.", "last_name"=>"Syphard", "scopus_author_id"=>"6507891871"}, {"first_name"=>"Janet", "last_name"=>"Franklin", "scopus_author_id"=>"35725372300"}, {"first_name"=>"Lorraine", "last_name"=>"Flint", "scopus_author_id"=>"7103361010"}, {"first_name"=>"Alan", "last_name"=>"Flint", "scopus_author_id"=>"7201816357"}, {"first_name"=>"Helen M.", "last_name"=>"Regan", "scopus_author_id"=>"6603947808"}], "year"=>2012, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"issn"=>"19326203", "isbn"=>"1932-6203", "pmid"=>"22623955", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84862088551", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0036391", "sgr"=>"84862088551", "pui"=>"364850156"}, "id"=>"28e81627-35e7-32f3-bf6c-ce6154f3f129", "abstract"=>"A species' response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species' ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species--Quercus engelmannii (Engelmann oak). Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors--climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency--emphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in Q. engelmannii abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/roles-dispersal-fecundity-predation-population-persistence-oak-quercus-engelmannii-under-global-chan", "reader_count"=>57, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>3, "Librarian"=>3, "Researcher"=>22, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>13, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>5, "Other"=>2, "Student > Bachelor"=>4, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>2}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>3, "Librarian"=>3, "Researcher"=>22, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>13, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Student > Master"=>5, "Other"=>2, "Student > Bachelor"=>4, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>2}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Engineering"=>2, "Environmental Science"=>20, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>24, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>2, "Social Sciences"=>2, "Computer Science"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>2}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>2}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>2}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>2}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>24}, "Computer Science"=>{"Computer Science"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>4}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>20}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"United States"=>3, "Italy"=>1, "United Kingdom"=>1, "Mexico"=>1, "Spain"=>1}, "group_count"=>3}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/635778"], "description"=>"<p>Both panels assume the PCM scenario and the absence of fire. In (a), curves are truncated if total dispersal of acorns from a patch exceeds the number of acorns in that patch. In (b), the parameter <i>a</i> is held fixed at 0.01. The dashed line is truncated at <i>d</i> = <i>D</i><sub>max</sub>.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["abundance", "graphed", "dispersal", "parameters"], "article_id"=>306266, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Erin Conlisk", "Dawn Lawson", "Alexandra D. Syphard", "Janet Franklin", "Lorraine Flint", "Alan Flint", "Helen M. Regan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0036391.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Expected_minimum_abundance_graphed_against_the_dispersal_parameters_a_logged_and_d_for_a_range_of_dispersal_scenarios_/306266", "title"=>"Expected minimum abundance graphed against the dispersal parameters <i>a</i> (logged) and <i>d</i> for a range of dispersal scenarios.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-05-18 01:44:26"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/328485", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/328694", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/328815"], "description"=>"<div><p>A species’ response to climate change depends on the interaction of biotic and abiotic factors that define future habitat suitability and species’ ability to migrate or adapt. The interactive effects of processes such as fire, dispersal, and predation have not been thoroughly addressed in the climate change literature. Our objective was to examine how life history traits, short-term global change perturbations, and long-term climate change interact to affect the likely persistence of an oak species - <em>Quercus engelmannii</em> (Engelmann oak). Specifically, we combined dynamic species distribution models, which predict suitable habitat, with stochastic, stage-based metapopulation models, which project population trajectories, to evaluate the effects of three global change factors – climate change, land use change, and altered fire frequency – emphasizing the roles of dispersal and seed predation. Our model predicted dramatic reduction in <em>Q. engelmannii</em> abundance, especially under drier climates and increased fire frequency. When masting lowers seed predation rates, decreased masting frequency leads to large abundance decreases. Current rates of dispersal are not likely to prevent these effects, although increased dispersal could mitigate population declines. The results suggest that habitat suitability predictions by themselves may under-estimate the impact of climate change for other species and locations.</p> </div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["roles", "predation", "persistence"], "article_id"=>124848, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Erin Conlisk", "Dawn Lawson", "Alexandra D. Syphard", "Janet Franklin", "Lorraine Flint", "Alan Flint", "Helen M. Regan"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0036391.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0036391.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0036391.s003"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>6, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/The_Roles_of_Dispersal_Fecundity_and_Predation_in_the_Population_Persistence_of_an_Oak_Quercus_engelmannii_under_Global_Change/124848", "title"=>"The Roles of Dispersal, Fecundity, and Predation in the Population Persistence of an Oak (<em>Quercus engelmannii</em>) under Global Change", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2012-05-18 01:20:48"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/635651"], "description"=>"<p>The four panels correspond to four climate and land use scenarios: (a) no habitat change, (b) land use change, (c) PCM climate change, and (d) GFDL climate change. Dispersal parameters are shown in (a) in km. The settings for the average and maximum dispersal distances <i>d</i> = 1 and <i>D</i><sub>max</sub> = 4 represent upper limits of empirically observed dispersal distances by jays. Throughout, the dispersal flow parameter is <i>a</i> = 0.01. Note the change in vertical axis units across graphs. No error bars are included because they would be smaller than the symbols on the figure. The mean of 1,000 model runs varies by less than 1% between different 1,000-run simulations.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["abundance"], "article_id"=>306141, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Erin Conlisk", "Dawn Lawson", "Alexandra D. Syphard", "Janet Franklin", "Lorraine Flint", "Alan Flint", "Helen M. Regan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0036391.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>5, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Expected_minimum_abundance_for_various_dispersal_fire_and_habitat_change_scenarios_/306141", "title"=>"Expected minimum abundance for various dispersal, fire and habitat change scenarios.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-05-18 01:42:21"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/635891"], "description"=>"<p>Masting treatments. (a) and (d): masting probability 0.53 in a time step (or, on average, roughly every three years). (b) and (e): masting probability 0.12 in a time step (or, on average, every 16 years). (c) and (f): no masting. Predation treatments. (a), (b), and (c): ∼96% predation in masting years and ∼99% predation in non-masting years. (d), (e), and (f): ∼96% predation in all time-steps. Within each of Figures (a)–(f), dispersal distances are varied as shown on the legend in (c).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["abundance", "masting-predation"], "article_id"=>306379, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Erin Conlisk", "Dawn Lawson", "Alexandra D. Syphard", "Janet Franklin", "Lorraine Flint", "Alan Flint", "Helen M. Regan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0036391.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>4, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Expected_minimum_abundance_as_a_function_of_average_fire_return_interval_for_six_masting_predation_scenarios_/306379", "title"=>"Expected minimum abundance as a function of average fire return interval for six masting-predation scenarios.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-05-18 01:46:19"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/635594"], "description"=>"<p>(a) Suitable habitat areas predicted for 2100 as ratios to suitable habitat areas estimated for 2000. The ratios are based only on habitat suitability maps. (b) The demographic component of the model is added, but with no fire and no dispersal. Each bar represents a ratio of a 2100 predicted population under a land use or climate change scenario to the 2100 predicted population under the no change scenario (where, in the no change scenario, suitable habitat is the same in 2000 and 2100). (c) Dispersal is added as described in text eqn 5, with the high values of average dispersal distance <i>d</i> = 10 km, and maximum dispersal distance <i>D</i><sub>max</sub> = 20 km, and with the flow parameter <i>a</i> = 0.01. All calculations for this figure assume the absence of fire.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ratios"], "article_id"=>306085, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Erin Conlisk", "Dawn Lawson", "Alexandra D. Syphard", "Janet Franklin", "Lorraine Flint", "Alan Flint", "Helen M. Regan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0036391.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>2, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Q_engelmannii_habitat_ratios_and_population_ratios_under_various_assumptions_/306085", "title"=>"<i>Q. engelmannii</i> habitat ratios and population ratios under various assumptions.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-05-18 01:41:25"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/636026"], "description"=>"<p>The top three rows list the scenarios in which seed predation is lower in masting years. These first three rows are ordered by decreasing masting frequency. The bottom three rows list scenarios for which seed predation does not vary between masting and non-masting years. The last three rows are ordered by decreasing masting frequency. The coefficient of variation is the same in masting and non-masting years.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["masting-predation"], "article_id"=>306515, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Erin Conlisk", "Dawn Lawson", "Alexandra D. Syphard", "Janet Franklin", "Lorraine Flint", "Alan Flint", "Helen M. Regan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0036391.t001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Six_masting_predation_scenarios_/306515", "title"=>"Six masting-predation scenarios.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2012-05-18 01:48:35"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/635508"], "description"=>"<p>Map (a) shows habitat currently occupied by <i>Q. engelmannii</i> in cyan, and other habitat estimated to be currently suitable in yellow. Map (b) shows predicted 2100 suitable habitat in yellow for the PCM future climate scenario. Map (c) shows the same for the GFDL scenario (the box in the lower right surrounds the two small patches of remaining suitable habitat). In all three maps, the black represents current urban areas, and the red represents the extent of urban expansion by 2050.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["san", "diego", "riverside", "corners", "los", "angeles", "bernardino", "counties"], "article_id"=>305985, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences", "Ecology"], "users"=>["Erin Conlisk", "Dawn Lawson", "Alexandra D. Syphard", "Janet Franklin", "Lorraine Flint", "Alan Flint", "Helen M. Regan"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0036391.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>3, "page_views"=>11, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Map_of_the_study_area_most_of_San_Diego_and_Orange_Counties_western_Riverside_County_and_the_southern_corners_of_Los_Angeles_and_San_Bernardino_Counties_see_inset_/305985", "title"=>"Map of the study area: most of San Diego and Orange Counties, western Riverside County, and the southern corners of Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties (see inset).", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2012-05-18 01:39:45"}

PMC Usage Stats | Further Information

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Relative Metric

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