Estimating How Inflated or Obscured Effects of Climate Affect Forecasted Species Distribution
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{"title"=>"Estimating How Inflated or Obscured Effects of Climate Affect Forecasted Species Distribution", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Raimundo", "last_name"=>"Real", "scopus_author_id"=>"7003438954"}, {"first_name"=>"David", "last_name"=>"Romero", "scopus_author_id"=>"55828150520"}, {"first_name"=>"Jesús", "last_name"=>"Olivero", "scopus_author_id"=>"7005746575"}, {"first_name"=>"Alba", "last_name"=>"Estrada", "scopus_author_id"=>"23469363700"}, {"first_name"=>"Ana L.", "last_name"=>"Márquez", "scopus_author_id"=>"7102678925"}], "year"=>2013, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"pui"=>"368101398", "sgr"=>"84872230943", "issn"=>"19326203", "pmid"=>"23349726", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84872230943", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0053646"}, "id"=>"900359ed-0674-3737-95e1-28eead85ac1c", "abstract"=>"Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata and Capra pyrenaica) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (ρ), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/estimating-inflated-obscured-effects-climate-affect-forecasted-species-distribution", "reader_count"=>49, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>6, "Researcher"=>14, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>10, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Student > Master"=>9, "Other"=>1, "Student > Bachelor"=>3, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>6, "Researcher"=>14, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>10, "Student > Postgraduate"=>2, "Student > Master"=>9, "Other"=>1, "Student > Bachelor"=>3, "Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Environmental Science"=>9, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>32, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>3}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>1}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>3}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>32}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>4}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>9}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Netherlands"=>1, "Mexico"=>1, "Portugal"=>1, "Switzerland"=>1, "Germany"=>1, "Spain"=>1}, "group_count"=>4}

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Figshare

  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/277139", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/277176"], "description"=>"<div><p>Climate is one of the main drivers of species distribution. However, as different environmental factors tend to co-vary, the effect of climate cannot be taken at face value, as it may be either inflated or obscured by other correlated factors. We used the favourability models of four species (<em>Alytes dickhilleni, Vipera latasti, Aquila fasciata</em> and <em>Capra pyrenaica</em>) inhabiting Spanish mountains as case studies to evaluate the relative contribution of climate in their forecasted favourability by using variation partitioning and weighting the effect of climate in relation to non-climatic factors. By calculating the pure effect of the climatic factor, the pure effects of non-climatic factors, the shared climatic effect and the proportion of the pure effect of the climatic factor in relation to its apparent effect (ρ), we assessed the apparent effect and the pure independent effect of climate. We then projected both types of effects when modelling the future favourability for each species and combination of AOGCM-SRES (two Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Models: CGCM2 and ECHAM4, and two Special Reports on Emission Scenarios (SRES): A2 and B2). The results show that the apparent effect of climate can be either inflated (overrated) or obscured (underrated) by other correlated factors. These differences were species-specific; the sum of favourable areas forecasted according to the pure climatic effect differed from that forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect by about 61% on average for one of the species analyzed, and by about 20% on average for each of the other species. The pure effect of future climate on species distributions can only be estimated by combining climate with other factors. Transferring the pure climatic effect and the apparent climatic effect to the future delimits the maximum and minimum favourable areas forecasted for each species in each climate change scenario.</p> </div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["estimating", "inflated", "obscured", "effects", "forecasted", "distribution"], "article_id"=>114634, "categories"=>["Information And Computing Sciences", "Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Raimundo Real", "David Romero", "Jesús Olivero", "Alba Estrada", "Ana L. Márquez"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0053646.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0053646.s002"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/Estimating_How_Inflated_or_Obscured_Effects_of_Climate_Affect_Forecasted_Species_Distribution_/114634", "title"=>"Estimating How Inflated or Obscured Effects of Climate Affect Forecasted Species Distribution", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2013-01-11 01:17:14"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/508797"], "description"=>"<p>Distribution of the future favourability forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect (F<sub>AC</sub>) and that forecasted according to the pure climatic effect (F<sub>PC</sub>). These maps represent three situations: F<sub>AC</sub> < F<sub>PC</sub>, F<sub>AC </sub> F<sub>PC</sub>, F<sub>AC</sub> > F<sub>PC.</sub> The examples shown are those where the difference or similarity were most evident.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["Computational biology", "computer science"], "article_id"=>179297, "categories"=>["Information And Computing Sciences", "Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Raimundo Real", "David Romero", "Jesús Olivero", "Alba Estrada", "Ana L. Márquez"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0053646.g001"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Forecasted_favourability_/179297", "title"=>"Forecasted favourability.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-01-11 02:34:57"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/508940"], "description"=>"<p>Distribution of the uncertainty associated with differences between the favourabilities forecasted according to the apparent and the pure climatic effect (|<i>F<sub>fClim</sub></i> - <i>F<sub>fPClim</sub></i>|) for the three species and situations represented in <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0053646#pone-0053646-g001\" target=\"_blank\">Figure 1</a>.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["forecasted"], "article_id"=>179438, "categories"=>["Information And Computing Sciences", "Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Raimundo Real", "David Romero", "Jesús Olivero", "Alba Estrada", "Ana L. Márquez"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0053646.g002"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Differences_between_forecasted_local_favourabilities_/179438", "title"=>"Differences between forecasted local favourabilities.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2013-01-11 02:37:18"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/509023"], "description"=>"<p>Values shown are the percentages of variation explained by the Pure Non-Climatic Effect (PNCE), the Pure Climatic Effect (PCE) and the Shared Climatic Effect (SCE). ρ: Proportion of pure climatic factor in relation to the whole climatic factor.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["partitioning", "favourability", "models"], "article_id"=>179514, "categories"=>["Information And Computing Sciences", "Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Raimundo Real", "David Romero", "Jesús Olivero", "Alba Estrada", "Ana L. Márquez"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0053646.t001"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Variation_partitioning_of_the_combined_favourability_models_for_the_period_1961_8211_1990_/179514", "title"=>"Variation partitioning of the combined favourability models for the period 1961–1990.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2013-01-11 02:38:34"}
  • {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/509067"], "description"=>"<p>R: Relative proportion of change ((<i>F<sub>AC</sub></i> - <i>F<sub>PC</sub></i>) / <i>F<sub>AC</sub></i>).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["favourability", "forecasted", "climatic"], "article_id"=>179559, "categories"=>["Information And Computing Sciences", "Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Raimundo Real", "David Romero", "Jesús Olivero", "Alba Estrada", "Ana L. Márquez"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0053646.t002"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>0, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Differences_between_the_favourability_forecasted_according_to_the_apparent_climatic_effect_F_AC_and_to_the_pure_climatic_effect_F_PC_for_each_species_and_period_of_time_/179559", "title"=>"Differences between the favourability forecasted according to the apparent climatic effect (<i>F<sub>AC</sub></i>) and to the pure climatic effect (<i>F<sub>PC</sub></i>) for each species and period of time.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>3, "published_date"=>"2013-01-11 02:39:19"}

PMC Usage Stats | Further Information

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Relative Metric

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