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{"title"=>"Continental-scale assessment of risk to the Australian Odonata from climate change", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Alex A.", "last_name"=>"Bush", "scopus_author_id"=>"56061629500"}, {"first_name"=>"David A.", "last_name"=>"Nipperess", "scopus_author_id"=>"6506894049"}, {"first_name"=>"Daisy E.", "last_name"=>"Duursma", "scopus_author_id"=>"26647399100"}, {"first_name"=>"Gunther", "last_name"=>"Theischinger", "scopus_author_id"=>"8555689200"}, {"first_name"=>"Eren", "last_name"=>"Turak", "scopus_author_id"=>"6603285262"}, {"first_name"=>"Lesley", "last_name"=>"Hughes", "scopus_author_id"=>"55795365200"}], "year"=>2014, "source"=>"PLoS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"pmid"=>"24551197", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0088958", "sgr"=>"84895779652", "isbn"=>"1932-6203", "scopus"=>"2-s2.0-84895779652", "issn"=>"19326203", "pui"=>"372555450"}, "id"=>"9ae74b50-b7bb-3139-8a47-483c8b4ed63c", "abstract"=>"Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on the composition of freshwater communities, and many species are threatened by the loss of climatically suitable habitat. In this study we identify Australian Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) vulnerable to the effects of climate change on the basis of exposure, sensitivity and pressure to disperse in the future. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to predict the distribution of 270 (85%) species of Australian Odonata, continent-wide at the subcatchment scale, and for both current and future climates using two emissions scenarios each for 2055 and 2085. Exposure was scored according to the departure of temperature, precipitation and hydrology from current conditions. Sensitivity accounted for change in the area and suitability of projected climatic habitat, and pressure to disperse combined measurements of average habitat shifts and the loss experienced with lower dispersal rates. Streams and rivers important to future conservation efforts were identified based on the sensitivity-weighted sum of habitat suitability for the most vulnerable species. The overall extent of suitable habitat declined for 56-69% of the species modelled by 2085 depending on emissions scenario. The proportion of species at risk across all components (exposure, sensitivity, pressure to disperse) varied between 7 and 17% from 2055 to 2085 and a further 3-17% of species were also projected to be at high risk due to declines that did not require range shifts. If dispersal to Tasmania was limited, many south-eastern species are at significantly increased risk. Conservation efforts will need to focus on creating and preserving freshwater refugia as part of a broader conservation strategy that improves connectivity and promotes adaptive range shifts. The significant predicted shifts in suitable habitat could potentially exceed the dispersal capacity of Odonata and highlights the challenge faced by other freshwater species.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/continentalscale-assessment-risk-australian-odonata-climate-change", "reader_count"=>63, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>15, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>6, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>13, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Other"=>4, "Student > Master"=>5, "Student > Bachelor"=>8, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>7}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Unspecified"=>2, "Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>15, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>6, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>13, "Student > Postgraduate"=>1, "Other"=>4, "Student > Master"=>5, "Student > Bachelor"=>8, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>7}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>4, "Engineering"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>13, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>40, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>2, "Chemistry"=>1, "Social Sciences"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>1}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>2}, "Chemistry"=>{"Chemistry"=>1}, "Social Sciences"=>{"Social Sciences"=>1}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>1}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>40}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>4}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>13}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Brazil"=>2, "Italy"=>2, "France"=>1, "Germany"=>1, "Spain"=>1}, "group_count"=>2}

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• http://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12295
• http://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2016.09.005
• http://doi.org/10.1086/682174
• http://doi.org/10.3390/f10070575
• http://doi.org/10.1111/brv.12204
• http://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12196
• http://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.6472
• http://doi.org/10.1080/13887890.2015.1009392
• http://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2018.06.109
• http://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-016-9852-3
• http://doi.org/10.1111/fwb.12874
• http://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2017.04.005
• http://doi.org/10.7717/peerj.1410
• http://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.12865
• http://doi.org/10.1086/682688
• http://doi.org/10.1111/jbi.12926
• http://doi.org/10.1007/s10841-018-0063-y
• http://doi.org/10.1111/icad.12132
• http://doi.org/10.1016/j.cois.2015.09.012
• http://doi.org/10.1111/ddi.12935
• http://doi.org/10.1002/aqc.2658

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• {"id"=>"434107567996809216", "text"=>"Continental-Scale Assessment of Risk to the Australian Odonata from Climate Change http://t.co/zbwlb5Y2Rk", "created_at"=>"2014-02-13T23:31:24Z", "user"=>"PLOSONE", "user_name"=>"PLOS ONE", "user_profile_image"=>"http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/2429958559/mzjl6as5u2m09r2erof6_normal.jpeg"}
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• {"id"=>"434119653716426752", "text"=>"RT @PLOSONE: Continental-Scale Assessment of Risk to the Australian Odonata from Climate Change http://t.co/zbwlb5Y2Rk", "created_at"=>"2014-02-14T00:19:25Z", "user"=>"Salomedussa", "user_name"=>"Salomé Dussán-Duque", "user_profile_image"=>"http://pbs.twimg.com/profile_images/427016352239738880/uhKE2o0v_normal.jpeg"}

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• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1387007"], "description"=>"<p>The panels show priorities in dark blue for (a) Australia, and regional views of (b) Tasmania, (c) the north-west, (d) Cape York peninsula, (e) the south-west and (f) the south-east.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Community Ecology", "Community assembly", "Ecological risk", "Ecological environments", "Aquatic environments", "Freshwater environments", "Conservation science", "Freshwater ecology", "Global change ecology", "Limnetic ecology", "Atmospheric science", "Climatology", "climate change", "priorities", "odonata", "categories"], "article_id"=>935464, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Alex A. Bush", "David A. Nipperess", "Daisy E. Duursma", "Gunther Theischinger", "Eren Turak", "Lesley Hughes"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088958.g005", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>1, "page_views"=>12, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Map_of_conservation_priorities_for_Odonata_vulnerable_to_climate_change_in_Categories_1_and_2_/935464", "title"=>"Map of conservation priorities for Odonata vulnerable to climate change in Categories 1 and 2.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-02-13 04:18:18"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1387000"], "description"=>"<p>Under current conditions (solid line) suitability is reduced around 300 km, and extended to 630 km (2055) and 1080 km (2085) under future climate change scenarios.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Community Ecology", "Community assembly", "Ecological risk", "Ecological environments", "Aquatic environments", "Freshwater environments", "Conservation science", "Freshwater ecology", "Global change ecology", "Limnetic ecology", "Atmospheric science", "Climatology", "climate change", "probability", "dispersal"], "article_id"=>935459, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Alex A. Bush", "David A. Nipperess", "Daisy E. Duursma", "Gunther Theischinger", "Eren Turak", "Lesley Hughes"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088958.g002", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>6, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Modelled_probability_of_species_dispersal_with_distance_from_known_records_/935459", "title"=>"Modelled probability of species dispersal with distance from known records.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-02-13 04:18:18"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1386999"], "description"=>"<p>The effects of climate change on a species were based on three components: exposure, sensitivity and dispersal pressure. Possible adaptation options are given for species at risk under multiple components (adapted from <a href=\"http://www.plosone.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pone.0088958#pone.0088958-Foden1\" target=\"_blank\">[40]</a>).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Community Ecology", "Community assembly", "Ecological risk", "Ecological environments", "Aquatic environments", "Freshwater environments", "Conservation science", "Freshwater ecology", "Global change ecology", "Limnetic ecology", "Atmospheric science", "Climatology", "climate change", "vulnerability"], "article_id"=>935458, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Alex A. Bush", "David A. Nipperess", "Daisy E. Duursma", "Gunther Theischinger", "Eren Turak", "Lesley Hughes"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088958.g001", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>8, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Categories_of_vulnerability_to_climate_change_/935458", "title"=>"Categories of vulnerability to climate change.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-02-13 04:18:18"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1387010", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1387011", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1387012", "https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1387013"], "description"=>"<div><p>Climate change is expected to have substantial impacts on the composition of freshwater communities, and many species are threatened by the loss of climatically suitable habitat. In this study we identify Australian Odonata (dragonflies and damselflies) vulnerable to the effects of climate change on the basis of exposure, sensitivity and pressure to disperse in the future. We used an ensemble of species distribution models to predict the distribution of 270 (85%) species of Australian Odonata, continent-wide at the subcatchment scale, and for both current and future climates using two emissions scenarios each for 2055 and 2085. Exposure was scored according to the departure of temperature, precipitation and hydrology from current conditions. Sensitivity accounted for change in the area and suitability of projected climatic habitat, and pressure to disperse combined measurements of average habitat shifts and the loss experienced with lower dispersal rates. Streams and rivers important to future conservation efforts were identified based on the sensitivity-weighted sum of habitat suitability for the most vulnerable species. The overall extent of suitable habitat declined for 56–69% of the species modelled by 2085 depending on emissions scenario. The proportion of species at risk across all components (exposure, sensitivity, pressure to disperse) varied between 7 and 17% from 2055 to 2085 and a further 3–17% of species were also projected to be at high risk due to declines that did not require range shifts. If dispersal to Tasmania was limited, many south-eastern species are at significantly increased risk. Conservation efforts will need to focus on creating and preserving freshwater refugia as part of a broader conservation strategy that improves connectivity and promotes adaptive range shifts. The significant predicted shifts in suitable habitat could potentially exceed the dispersal capacity of Odonata and highlights the challenge faced by other freshwater species.</p></div>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Community Ecology", "Community assembly", "Ecological risk", "Ecological environments", "Aquatic environments", "Freshwater environments", "Conservation science", "Freshwater ecology", "Global change ecology", "Limnetic ecology", "Atmospheric science", "Climatology", "climate change", "australian", "odonata"], "article_id"=>935467, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Alex A. Bush", "David A. Nipperess", "Daisy E. Duursma", "Gunther Theischinger", "Eren Turak", "Lesley Hughes"], "doi"=>["https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088958.s001", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088958.s002", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088958.s003", "https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088958.s004"], "stats"=>{"downloads"=>6, "page_views"=>18, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Continental_Scale_Assessment_of_Risk_to_the_Australian_Odonata_from_Climate_Change_/935467", "title"=>"Continental-Scale Assessment of Risk to the Australian Odonata from Climate Change", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>4, "published_date"=>"2014-02-13 04:18:18"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1387002"], "description"=>"<p>High suitability is in dark green.</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Community Ecology", "Community assembly", "Ecological risk", "Ecological environments", "Aquatic environments", "Freshwater environments", "Conservation science", "Freshwater ecology", "Global change ecology", "Limnetic ecology", "Atmospheric science", "Climatology", "climate change", "south-eastern", "australia", "2055", "2085", "emissions"], "article_id"=>935461, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Alex A. Bush", "David A. Nipperess", "Daisy E. Duursma", "Gunther Theischinger", "Eren Turak", "Lesley Hughes"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088958.g004", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>0, "page_views"=>10, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Predicted_suitable_habitat_in_south_eastern_Australia_under_current_climate_and_2055_and_2085_using_emissions_scenario_RCP8_5_for_Notoaeschna_sagittata_Coenagrion_lyelli_and_Petalura_gigantea_/935461", "title"=>"Predicted suitable habitat in south-eastern Australia under current climate and 2055 and 2085 using emissions scenario RCP8.5 for <i>Notoaeschna sagittata</i>, <i>Coenagrion lyelli</i> and <i>Petalura gigantea</i>.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-02-13 04:18:18"}
• {"files"=>["https://ndownloader.figshare.com/files/1387001"], "description"=>"<p>Species are most vulnerable if they are at risk in all components (Category 1).</p>", "links"=>[], "tags"=>["ecology", "Community Ecology", "Community assembly", "Ecological risk", "Ecological environments", "Aquatic environments", "Freshwater environments", "Conservation science", "Freshwater ecology", "Global change ecology", "Limnetic ecology", "Atmospheric science", "Climatology", "climate change"], "article_id"=>935460, "categories"=>["Biological Sciences"], "users"=>["Alex A. Bush", "David A. Nipperess", "Daisy E. Duursma", "Gunther Theischinger", "Eren Turak", "Lesley Hughes"], "doi"=>"https://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0088958.g003", "stats"=>{"downloads"=>2, "page_views"=>11, "likes"=>0}, "figshare_url"=>"https://figshare.com/articles/_Percentage_of_species_n_270_found_to_be_vulnerable_to_climate_change_according_to_their_exposure_sensitivity_and_predicted_pressure_to_disperse_/935460", "title"=>"Percentage of species (<i>n</i> = 270) found to be vulnerable to climate change according to their exposure, sensitivity and predicted pressure to disperse.", "pos_in_sequence"=>0, "defined_type"=>1, "published_date"=>"2014-02-13 04:18:18"}

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Relative Metric

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F1000Prime