Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century
Publication Date
February 17, 2017
Authors
Francisco Estrada, Richard S. J. Tol & Wouter J. W. Botzen
Volume
12
Issue
2
Pages
e0172201
DOI
https://dx.plos.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0172201
Publisher URL
http://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371%2Fjournal.pone.0172201
Scopus
85013167678
Mendeley
http://www.mendeley.com/research/global-economic-impacts-climate-variability-change-during-20th-century-2
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Mendeley | Further Information

{"title"=>"Global economic impacts of climate variability and change during the 20th century", "type"=>"journal", "authors"=>[{"first_name"=>"Francisco", "last_name"=>"Estrada"}, {"first_name"=>"Richard S. J.", "last_name"=>"Tol"}, {"first_name"=>"Wouter J. W.", "last_name"=>"Botzen"}], "year"=>2017, "source"=>"PLOS ONE", "identifiers"=>{"pmid"=>"28212384", "isbn"=>"1111111111", "issn"=>"1932-6203", "doi"=>"10.1371/journal.pone.0172201"}, "id"=>"99a11f4e-6a67-375e-9729-a30e50a0a50c", "abstract"=>"Estimates of the global economic impacts of observed climate change during the 20th cen- tury obtained by applying five impact functions of different integrated assessment models (IAMs) are separated into their main natural and anthropogenic components. The estimates of the costs that can be attributed to natural variability factors and to the anthropogenic inter- vention with the climate system in general tend to show that: 1) during the first half of the cen- tury, the amplitude of the impacts associated with natural variability is considerably larger than that produced by anthropogenic factors and the effects of natural variability fluctuated between being negative and positive. These non-monotonic impacts are mostly determined by the low-frequency variability and the persistence of the climate system; 2) IAMs do not agree on the sign (nor on the magnitude) of the impacts of anthropogenic forcing but indicate that they steadily grew over the first part of the century, rapidly accelerated since the mid 1970’s, and decelerated during the first decade of the 21st century. This deceleration is accentuated by the existence of interaction effects between natural variability and natural and anthropogenic forcing. The economic impacts of anthropogenic forcing range in the tenths of percentage of the worldGDP by the end of the 20th century; 3) the impacts of natu- ral forcing are about one order of magnitude lower than those associated with anthropogenic forcing and are dominated by the solar forcing; 4) the interaction effects between natural and anthropogenic factors can importantly modulate how impacts actually occur, at least for mod- erate increases in external forcing. Human activities became dominant drivers of the esti- mated economic impacts at the end of the 20th century, producing larger impacts than those of low-frequency natural variability. Some of the uses and limitations of IAMs are discussed.", "link"=>"http://www.mendeley.com/research/global-economic-impacts-climate-variability-change-during-20th-century-2", "reader_count"=>23, "reader_count_by_academic_status"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>9, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>2, "Student > Master"=>4, "Other"=>2, "Student > Bachelor"=>2, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_user_role"=>{"Professor > Associate Professor"=>1, "Researcher"=>9, "Student > Doctoral Student"=>1, "Student > Ph. D. Student"=>2, "Student > Master"=>4, "Other"=>2, "Student > Bachelor"=>2, "Lecturer > Senior Lecturer"=>1, "Professor"=>1}, "reader_count_by_subject_area"=>{"Unspecified"=>1, "Engineering"=>1, "Environmental Science"=>9, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>2, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>1, "Philosophy"=>1, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>1, "Physics and Astronomy"=>1, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>4, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2}, "reader_count_by_subdiscipline"=>{"Engineering"=>{"Engineering"=>1}, "Medicine and Dentistry"=>{"Medicine and Dentistry"=>1}, "Physics and Astronomy"=>{"Physics and Astronomy"=>1}, "Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>{"Earth and Planetary Sciences"=>4}, "Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>{"Economics, Econometrics and Finance"=>2}, "Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>{"Agricultural and Biological Sciences"=>2}, "Business, Management and Accounting"=>{"Business, Management and Accounting"=>1}, "Unspecified"=>{"Unspecified"=>1}, "Environmental Science"=>{"Environmental Science"=>9}, "Philosophy"=>{"Philosophy"=>1}}, "reader_count_by_country"=>{"Brazil"=>1}, "group_count"=>4}

Scopus | Further Information

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